Next up in this series, we will flip over to the defensive side of the ball and take a look at the trenches. The first thing I did for constructing these models was to split the players into two groups: interior defensive linemen and edge rushers. Interior defensive linemen include 4-3 defensive tackles, 3-4 defensive ends, and 3-4 nose tackles. Edge rushers include 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers.
Generally, both models think that the athletic workout numbers are more important for edge rushers, and production metrics are more important for interior lineman. Specifically, both models see weight adjusted 40 times, broad jumps, and three cone drills as important indicators for incoming edge rushers, and both models see run stops, forced fumbles, and passes defended as important indicators for incoming interior lineman.
Before we look at where the individual prospects landed, let's take a look at the year to year distributions to see if we can gain any insights on the classes as a whole. The data from these draft classes are blind to the model, meaning projections will not be skewed by the success or lack thereof of these players.
Looking at this, we can see pretty drastic differences in the distribution of interior line projections year over year. For example, the 2014 draft class was extremely top heavy (that guy at the top is Aaron Donald), while the 2016 draft class lacked a true elite prospect but was filled with great starting options. The 2018 draft class seems to follow that mold, with underwhelming top options, but plenty of depth options.
Edge rushers on the other hand, have been much more consistent year to year, at least recently. You do see some variability (2016 was a more top end year, 2015 was more of a depth year), but generally things are more even. The 2018 draft class seems comparable to 2016, with great top options and mediocre depth options.
Finally, let's look at the individual prospects. First up are the interior linemen:
Name
|
Expected Draft Pick
|
Linear
|
Random Forest
|
Average
|
Harrison Phillips
|
45
|
5.29
|
4.86
|
5.07
|
PJ Hall
|
120
|
4.94
|
4.63
|
4.78
|
Vita Vea*
|
15
|
5.38
|
3.68
|
4.53
|
Maurice Hurst
|
32
|
4.59
|
3.98
|
4.29
|
Da'Ron Payne
|
20
|
4.87
|
3.59
|
4.23
|
Tim Settle*
|
100
|
3.44
|
4.07
|
3.75
|
Derrick Nnadi
|
90
|
2.95
|
3.52
|
3.23
|
BJ Hill
|
100
|
3.26
|
2.31
| 2.79 |
Bilal Nichols
|
150
|
2.29
|
3.12
|
2.71
|
Taven Bryan
|
30
|
2.83
|
2.56
|
2.69
|
Generally, the models are down on the first round options in this year's class. Vea, Hurst, and Payne get solid grades, but maybe not what you would be expecting from a first round player. Bryan, on the other hand, the models see as potential bust. Bryan is an amazing athlete, but has very underwhelming production numbers. His profile is exceedingly rare, and it's hard to get a good comp for him. He'll be an interesting case study.
In terms of value, look no further than PJ Hall of Sam Houston State. Hall is an unbelievable athlete with the production to match. To qualify, the models are not equipped to handle FCS players and none of the FCS prospects from the past are including in the data used to build the models. However, a prospects with his profile projected to go in the 4th round is hard to ignore. If I'm a team, I'm looking for a way for my team to come away from the draft with PJ Hall.
Now let's look at the edge rushers:
Name
|
Expected Draft Pick
|
Linear
|
Random Forest
|
Average
|
Bradley Chubb
|
3
|
7.79
|
5.67
|
6.73
|
Marcus Davenport
|
20
|
6.36
|
6.12
|
6.24
|
Harold Landry
|
14
|
5.77
|
4.76
|
5.27
|
Rasheem Green
|
50
|
4.70
|
5.75
|
5.23
|
Josh Sweat
|
70
|
5.34
|
4.27
|
4.80
|
Lorenzo Carter
|
40
|
4.52
|
4.16
|
4.34
|
Uchenna Nwosu
|
90
|
4.20
|
3.63
|
3.91
|
Dorance Armstrong Jr
|
100
|
3.80
|
3.63
|
3.71
|
Tyquan Lewis
|
90
|
3.37
|
3.87
|
3.62
|
Sam Hubbard
|
50
|
3.40
|
3.17
|
3.28
|
Not many surprises here, with all 3 of the first round prospects landing in the top 3 spots. However, Chubb and Davenport seem to have separated themselves on a tier above the rest, with Landry being basically tied with projected second rounder Rasheem Green. An interesting mid round option is Uchenna Nwosu, who posted up 14 passes defensed last year in addition to notching a good 40 time and fantastic 3 cone drill.
