Alexander Gustafsson (70.85%) vs Glover Teixeira (29.15%)
Overall
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KO/TKO
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Sub
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Decision
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Headlining this card in Stockholm is Sweden's own Gustafsson against the heavy handed Brazilian, Teixeira. Currently sitting as a -275, the model agrees that Gustafsson is a heavy favorite to win this bout. The model sees Gustafsson's main advantage in this fight being his youth, something that has had increased importance since the inception of USADA. Expect this fight to remain mostly on the feet, with Gustafsson out pointing Glover with volume to secure a clear decision win.
Plays:
Gustafsson by Dec +220
Peter Sobotta (57.54%) vs Ben Saunders (42.46%)
Overall
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KO/TKO
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Sub
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Decision
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Having flipped from being the underdog to a small -115 favorite, the model favors Sobotta to improve his UFC record to 4-1 since returning to the organization. While Saunders has the superior volume, Sobotta is a little bit better defensively on the feet. If the fight hits the ground, Saunders is always a threat to finish the fight but expect Sobotta to be able to avoid damage and gain position. Ultimately, the most likely outcome of this fight is a closely contested ground battle which could force judges to choose between control and damage.
Plays:
None
Pedro Munhoz (79.72%) vs Damian Stasiak (20.28%)
Overall
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KO/TKO
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Sub
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Decision
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Hot off of his submission win of Justin Scoggins, Munhoz comes into this fight as a whopping -900 favorite. While the model see that as a bit rich, it agrees that Munhoz should be heavily favored in this bout. Eventually this fight should hit the mat, and when it does Munhoz will likely dominate those exchanges.
Plays:
None
Trevor Smith (33.32%) vs Chris Camozzi (66.68%)
Overall
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KO/TKO
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Sub
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Decision
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If there was ever a fight that was going to go to decision, it's this one. The winner of this fight will basically be decided on whether or not Smith will be able to secure takedowns. Ultimately, the model sees Camozzi's volume combined with his age advantage as able to help win him at least 2 rounds and take the fight on the judges' scorecards.
Plays:
Camozzi by Dec @ +151
Nico Musoke (49.19%) vs Bojan Velickovic (50.81%)
Overall
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KO/TKO
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Sub
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Decision
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Another fight that is likely to go to decision, the local Musoke comes in at a -125 favorite after a long layoff. However, the model sees Velickovic as having a defensive advantage in a fight that is likely to take place mostly on the feet. At a decent price of +247, there is value on taking Velickovic by decision.
Plays:
Velickovic by Dec @ +247
