Thursday, December 28, 2017

UFC 219 Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Cris Cyborg (73.52%) vs Holly Holm (26.48%) 

 73.52%
Overall
26.48% 
 48.00%
KO
16.53% 
 4.01%
Sub
0.01% 
 21.50%
Decision
9.94% 

Plays:
1.53% on Holm by KO/TKO at +830

Khabib Nurmagomedov (64.67%) vs Edson Barboza (35.33%)

 64.67%
Overall
35.33% 
 15.64%
KO
25.50% 
 12.29%
Sub
0.14% 
 36.75%
Decision
9.69% 

Plays:
2.02% on Barboza at +240

Cynthia Calvillo (67.43%) vs Carla Esparza (32.57%)

67.43% 
Overall
32.57% 
 35.64%
KO
2.38% 
 18.11%
Sub
0.40% 
 13.68%
Decision
29.79% 

Plays:
8.67% on Calvillo ITD at +181

Carlos Condit (57.95%) vs Neil Magny (42.05%)

 57.95%
Overall
42.05% 
 13.74%
KO
3.83% 
 9.06%
Sub
5.65% 
 35.15%
Decision
32.57% 

Plays:
9.74% on Fight GTD at -115
Dan Hooker (41.71%) vs Marc Diakiese (58.29%)

 41.71%
Overall
58.29% 
 7.83%
KO
15.94% 
 9.02%
Sub
0.70% 
 24.86%
Decision
41.65% 

Plays:
4.83% on Fight GTD at -145
Myles Jury (54.48%) vs Rick Glenn (45.52%)

54.48% 
Overall
45.52% 
 3.46%
KO
2.77% 
 8.32%
Sub
1.08% 
 42.70%
Decision
41.67% 

Plays:
3.44% on Glenn at +170

Marvin Vettori (67.06%) vs Omari Akhmedov (32.94%)

 67.06%
Overall
32.94% 
 17.43%
KO
4.24% 
 9.29%
Sub
2.92% 
 40.33%
Decision
25.78% 

Plays:
8.23% on Fight GTD at -115

Thursday, December 14, 2017

UFC on Fox Lawler vs Dos Anjos Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Robbie Lawler (39.99%) vs Rafael Dos Anjos (60.01%)

 39.99%
Overall
60.01% 
 17.73%
KO
19.85% 
 0.02%
Sub
6.17% 
 22.24%
Decision
33.99% 

Plays:
0.48% on Dos Anjos at -125

Ricardo Lamas (62.46%) vs Josh Emmett (37.54%)

 62.46%%
Overall
37.54% 
 7.60%
KO
7.57% 
 5.20%
Sub
0.19% 
 49.67%
Decision
29.77%

Plays:
3.60% on Fight GTD at -165

Santiago Ponzinibbio (55.11%) vs Mike Perry (44.89%)

 55.11%
Overall
44.89% 
 19.72%
KO
34.60% 
 2.46%
Sub
0.20% 
 32.94%
Decision
10.08% 

Plays:
0.31% on Perry by KO/TKO at +235
Glover Teixeira (34.10%) vs Misha Cirkunov (65.90%)

 34.10%
Overall
65.90% 
 7.86%
KO
25.16% 
 4.99%
Sub
10.03% 
 21.25%
Decision
30.72% 

Plays:
0.65% on Cirkunov at -155
Jared Cannonier (63.62%) vs Jan Blachowicz (36.38%)

 63.62%
Overall
36.38% 
 12.46%
KO
1.65% 
 0.35%
Sub
0.44% 
 50.81%
Decision
34.29% 

Plays:
6.60% on Fight GTD at -165
John Makdessi (45.27%) vs Abel Trujillo (54.73%)

 45.27%
Overall
54.73% 
 14.80%
KO
1.01% 
 0.24%
Sub
5.46% 
 30.23%
Decision
39.21% 

Plays:
3.52% on Fight GTD at +125
Alessio Di Chirico (56.65%) vs Oluwale Bamgbose (43.35%)

 56.65%
Overall
43.35% 
 10.72%
KO
16.07% 
 20.24%
Sub
3.88% 
 25.69%
Decision
23.40% 

Plays:
1.67% on Fight GTD at +240

Jordan Mein (61.27%) vs Erick Silva (38.73%)

 61.27%
Overall
38.73% 
 26.74%
KO
7.69% 
 2.81%
Sub
17.84% 
 31.72%
Decision
13.20% 

Plays:
0.72% on Fight GTD at +180
Nordine Taleb (41.38%) vs Danny Roberts (58.62%)

 41.38%
Overall
58.62%
 7.56%
KO
12.52% 
 0.33%
Sub
4.07% 
 33.50%
Decision
42.03% 

Plays:
1.02% on Roberts at +105

Thursday, December 7, 2017

UFC Fight Night Swanson vs Ortega Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*


Cub Swanson (31.97%) vs Brian Ortega (68.03%)

 31.97%
Overall
68.03% 
 7.27%
KO
14.69% 
 0.17%
Sub
26.47% 
 24.53%
Decision
26.86% 

Plays:
on Ortega at -115

Jason Knight (71.47%) vs Gabriel Benitez (28.53%)

 71.47%
Overall
28.53% 
 8.18%
KO
13.78% 
 29.95%
Sub
1.92% 
 33.33%
Decision
12.83% 

Plays:
on Benitez by KO/TKO at +1155

Alexis Davis (50.38%) vs Liz Carmouche (49.62%)

 50.38%
Overall
49.62% 
 8.07%
KO
3.94% 
 3.71%
Sub
4.10% 
 38.60%
Decision
41.58% 

Plays:
on Davis at +150

Alejandro Perez (47.83%) vs Iuri Alcantara (52.17%)

 47.83%
Overall
52.17% 
 15.80%
KO
6.23% 
 1.33%
Sub
13.70% 
 30.70%
Decision
32.23% 

Plays:
on Perez at +175