As for the quarterbacks, we will be projecting average AV per season for each wide reciever and tight end. Unlike the QBs, we will be looking at all players drafted, rather than just the first three rounds. This is because there are lower barriers to entry for other positions as compared to QB, and we are better able to make projections on lowly drafted players as a result.
Wide Receivers
N’Keal Harry, Arizona State
6.55 AV/S random, 6.19 AV/S linear, 6.37 AV/S combined, 1.32 surplus
Coming in as the number 1 ranked wide receiver is the standout from Arizona State, N’Keal Harry. Harry was a ball hog at ASU, gathering the highest number of catches before age 21 in the whole draft class, in addition to a whopping 47% of his team’s receiving touchdowns last year. Harry also provided some value outside of receiving in his career, getting 144 rushing yards and 165 punt return yards. N’Keal provides a significant amount of surplus value relative to his projected draft slot, and should be a top target for a team searching for a WR at the end of the first round.
2. DK Metcalf, Ole Miss
4.70 AV/S random, 6.21 AV/S linear, 5.46 AV/S combined, -1.51 surplus
DK Metcalf is a good example of why looking at the surplus value number is important. While DK comes in as the 2nd ranked prospect by the models, he is actually significantly lower than what you would expect from a player currently projected to go 10th overall. While DK is a size/speed freak, his below average production should give teams serious pause. While I won’t take Julio Jones-like potential off the table, I would rather trade down and take N’Keal Harry (or a couple of other guys upcoming) than roll the dice with Metcalf in the top portion of the draft.
3. Andy Isabella, UMass
5.49 AV/S random, 4.76 AV/S linear, 5.13 AV/S combined, 2.17 surplus
The models are obsessed with Andy Isabella. Projected as a late day 2 pick, Isabella is an undersized track star from small school UMass. Isabella was the most productive prospect in this wide receiver class, gathering 4.13 yards per team attempt and 0.031 TDs per team attempt. While he is slightly older than maybe you would want, Isabella had the ability to completely take over a game at the college level. His transition to the NFL relies on finding a true role in an offense and overcoming his small stature, but the models think he will find a way to succeed in spite of that. Isabella is a guy I would not want to leave the draft without selecting if I was a team that desperately needs a WR like the Ravens, Redskins, or Patriots.
4. AJ Brown, Ole Miss
4.10 AV/S random, 5.31 AV/S linear, 4.71 AV/S combined, -0.34 surplus
Long time producer at Ole Miss, AJ Brown has been a projected high draft pick for a long time. While people have become more hyped about his teammate DK Metcalf, Brown still projects to be a fine receiver at the NFL level. His production has been good to great in all aspects, with the sole exception of touchdowns. While he does have a negative projected surplus, the difference is fairly small and would not prevent me from taking him at his projected draft slot if my team likes his fit with our team.
5. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
3.55 AV/S random, 4.84 AV/S linear, 4.20 AV/S combined, -0.44 surplus
Full disclosure: I LOVE Hakeem Butler. When I watch his tape, I get total AJ Green vibes and see him as a dominant WR1 in the NFL. However, the model has more reservations than I do. Hakeem was a late bloomer in college, which historically have had a higher rate of NFL busts than guys that produce early on college. However, his last season was sensational, with competitive metrics with any other prospect in the class. In the end, Butler looks like a boom or bust prospect to me, which I tend to think with boom. Like Brown, he has a slight negative surplus but it’s a roll of the dice I might be willing to take at the end of the first round.
Sleeper: Ashton Dulin, Malone
4.11 AV/S random, 3.41 AV/S linear, 3.76 AV/S combined, 3.28 surplus
Ashton Dulin may be the best kept secret in the draft. After a four year playing career at Malone University, Dulin came onto my radar after smashing the combine where he ran a 4.43 40 time at 215 lbs with great jumps. Digging a little deeper, I found that Dulin had unreal production at the college level at all levels: the receiving game, the running game, and on special teams. While he played at an insanely small school (Malone actually folded their football team after this year), Dulin has metrics that would suggest he can be a legitimate NFL starter. Boasting the highest surplus value at a projected selection at the very last pick of the draft, getting Dulin should be of the highest priority for any club this year.
Tight Ends
TJ Hockenson, Iowa
3.66 AV/S random, 5.69 AV/S linear, 4.68 AV/S combined, -0.92 surplus
The consensus top tight end in the class also lands as the model’s number 1 TE, but a much weaker one than typically ranked. While he had great production and comes into the NFL as a 21 year old, Hockenson’s weight adjusted speed is only slightly above average. Personally, despite the very low surplus of -0.92, I think Hockenson will end up as a pretty good tight end, but his ceiling may not be as high as the other first rounder in this class….
2. Noah Fant, Iowa
4.10 AV/S random, 5.08 AV/S linear, 4.59 AV/S combined, -0.01 surplus
Noah Fant is a size/speed unicorn. Out of players drafted in the first three rounds used in the model, only Evan Engram has a higher speed score. Combined with solid production, Fant is a legitamte top tier tight end prospect.
3. Caleb Wilson, UCLA
3.46 AV/S random, 3.45 AV/S linear, 3.46 AV/S combined, 0.83 surplus
Uber productive in college, UCLA’s Caleb Wilson is the premier sleeper in this year’s tight end class. Wilson garnered a class leading 35.7% of his team’s receiving yardage, a number that rivals many wide receivers. If I’m a team needing a pass game threat at tight end, I would pencil in Caleb Wilson as my selection in the third round.
4. Irv Smith, Alabama
2.81 AV/S random, 3.79 AV/S linear, 3.30 AV/S combined, -0.40 surplus
Irv Smith is a solid, if unspectacular tight end option. With average metrics across the board, Smith grades out fairly well, but nothing that jumps off the page. I would probably pass on him at his second round price tag, opting to take an elite option in Hockenson/Fant or waiting a round and taking Wilson.
5. Josh Oliver, San Jose State
1.84 AV/S random, 2.77 AV/S linear, 2.31 AV/S combined, 0.37 surplus
After Smith, there is a fairly steep decline in expected talent in this tight end class. While Oliver provides decent value for his draft slot, he isn’t expected to be much more than a backup level tight end. While he isn’t a terrible selection in the 4th, I would rather pay up a bit and take one of Hockenson, Fant, or Wilson at a higher price tag.
