Friday, June 23, 2017

UFC Fight Night Chiesa vs Lee Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Michael Chiesa (33.73%) vs Kevin Lee (66.27%)

 33.73%
Overall
66.27% 
 10.11%
KO/TKO
 23.19%
 13.88%
Sub
 20.78%
 9.74%
Decision
 22.30%

Plays:
2.95% on Lee at -135

Tim Boetsch (34.44%) vs Johny Hendricks (65.56%)

 34.44%
Overall
65.56% 
 15.49%
KO/TKO
 19.59%
 5.26%
Sub
 5.64%
 13.70%
Decision
 40.33%

Plays:
None

Tim Means (62.67%) vs Alex Garcia (37.33%)

 62.67%
Overall
37.33% 
 15.31%
KO/TKO
 4.12%
 6.84%
Sub
 1.81%
 40.53%
Decision
 31.40%

Plays:
16.56% on Fight GTD at +225

BJ Penn (39.22%) vs Dennis Siver (60.78%)

 39.22%
Overall
60.78% 
 18.73%
KO/TKO
 32.53%
 3.08%
Sub
 2.82%
 17.41%
Decision
 25.43%

Plays:
1.21% on Siver by KO at +295

Clay Guida (28.97%) vs Erik Koch (71.03%)

 28.97%
Overall
71.03% 
 11.77%
KO/TKO
 36.93%
 3.68%
Sub
 19.88%
 13.53%
Decision
 14.22%

Plays:
9.06% on Fight ITD at +100

Carla Esparza (47.48%) vs Maryna Moroz (52.52%)

 47.48%
Overall
52.52% 
 2.31%
KO/TKO
 8.04%
 6.36%
Sub
 8.90%
 38.82%
Decision
 35.58%

Plays:
4.82% on Moroz at +210

Tony Martin (57.24%) vs Johnny Case (42.76%)

 57.24%
Overall
42.76% 
 12.67%
KO/TKO
 8.94%
 19.44%
Sub
 5.84%
 25.13%
Decision
 27.98%

Plays:
None

Thursday, June 15, 2017

UFC Fight Night Holm vs Correia Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Holly Holm (74.78%) vs Bethe Correia (25.22%)

 74.78%
Overall
25.22% 
 25.20%
KO/TKO
2.72% 
 3.35%
Sub
2.79% 
 46.23%
Decision
19.71% 

Plays:
5.72% on Correia at +425

Andrei Arlovski (23.59%) vs Marcin Tybura (76.41%)

 23.59%
Overall
76.41% 
 4.32%
KO/TKO
39.88% 
 2.16%
Sub
4.69% 
 17.12%
Decision
31.84% 

Plays:
17.11% on Tybura at -240

Tarec Saffiedine (35.23%) vs Rafael Dos Anjos (64.77%)

35.23% 
Overall
64.77% 
 3.76%
KO/TKO
8.58% 
 0.39%
Sub
6.95% 
 31.08%
Decision
49.24% 

Plays:
4.77% on Saffiedine at +225 

Takanori Gomi (22.58%) vs Jon Tuck (77.42%)

 22.58%
Overall
77.42% 
 9.87%
KO/TKO
23.79% 
 3.08%
Sub
18.38% 
 9.64%
Decision
35.24% 

Plays:
None

Justin Scoggins (82.20%) vs Ulka Sasaki (17.80%)

 82.20%
Overall
17.80% 
 12.60%
KO/TKO
0.75% 
 18.48%
Sub
13.47% 
 51.11%
Decision
3.59% 

Plays:
None

Friday, June 9, 2017

UFC Fight Night Hunt vs Lewis Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Derrick Lewis (76.23%) vs Mark Hunt (23.77%)

 76.23%
Overall
23.77% 
 31.51%
KO/TKO
19.71% 
 2.01%
Sub
0.23% 
 42.70%
Decision
3.83% 

Plays:
21.04% on Lewis at -135

Derek Brunson (69.26%) vs Daniel Kelly (30.74%)

 69.26%
Overall
30.74% 
 20.18%
KO/TKO
5.48% 
 18.44%
Sub
2.22% 
 30.64%
Decision
23.04% 

Plays:
None

Dan Hooker (63.83%) vs Ross Pearson (36.17%)

 63.83%
Overall
36.17% 
 12.99%
KO/TKO
5.03% 
 9.55%
Sub
1.43% 
 41.29%
Decision
29.71% 

Plays:
4.70% on Hooker at -135

Tim Elliott (60.08%) vs Ben Nguyen (39.92%)

 60.08%
Overall
39.92% 
 2.57%
KO/TKO
4.57% 
 23.46%
Sub
1.82% 
 34.04%
Decision
33.53% 

Plays:
None

Damien Brown (38.55%) vs Vinc Pichel (61.45%)

 38.55%
Overall
61.45% 
 1.93%
KO/TKO
1.45% 
 9.77%
Sub
45.94% 
 26.84%
Decision
14.06% 

Plays:
8.75% on Pichel at +105

Dong Hyun Kim (66.14%) vs Thibault Gouti (33.86%) 

 66.14%
Overall
33.86% 
 14.88%
KO/TKO
 2.65%
 25.14%
Sub
9.06% 
 26.12%
Decision
22.16% 

Plays:
9.12% on Kim at -120