2019 NFL Draft Prospect Analytics Projections

So I wasn't able to get around to writing up all position groups in detail, but I still collected data and built models for every position group for the 2019 draft. I compiled data on most prospects, and trimmed the list down to a top 200 big board. Without further adieu, here is my 2019 analytics big board: 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B5vGtL6kNdtS3cchE4yGaIMLhm4UUVr2gFOh5Y2q2bU/edit?usp=sharing

The AV Proj column is the raw model output for each prospect, while the Adj Grade column is that output divided by a factor to adjust for positional value. This pushes QBs, EDGEs, and WRs up the board while RBs and safeties fall, as approximate value does not really adjust for positional value. Additionally, I included both raw and adjusted surplus value numbers for every prospect. The surplus metric will tell you if a prospect is projected to exceed their draft expectation based on their model grade. Higher than 1 raw surplus means they exceed expectations for that draft slot and lower than 1 means they are projected to fail to reach that mark. For example, Kyler Murray is projected to be drafted number 1 by the model, and he exceeds the average QB drafted number 1 overall by about 29%. 

Before anyone asks, the following prospects did not have enough data to be included in the big board:

Jawaan Taylor

Yodeny Cajuste

Martez Ivey

Rodney Anderson

Bryce Love

Kendall Sheffield

Vosean Joseph

D'Andre Walker

Deionte Thompson

Ben Powers

Here are a few of my overall thoughts:

• I'm disgusted Daniel Jones is as high as he is. He was an early starter, good runner, had a pretty good strength of schedule, and didn't rely on any one receiver, but pretty terrible in the other QB stats like completion percentage and yards per attempt. He's Bortles-ish to me, but the top percentile outcome is a more mobile Matt Ryan. I guess if I was desperate for a QB just outside the top 10 I might convince myself to take him, but I'd much rather pass that buck, trade down and take Will Grier in the late 1st area.

• Running backs don't matter. The first running back on the big board is David Montgomery at 106, and I don't disagree with that. In the modern game, NFL teams should not be prioritizing the running back position.

• Ashton Dulin is a rare WR prospect, despite being from such a small school. I'm making sure my team comes away with him on Day 3 if I'm a GM.

• If I was a team picking in the top 5 area and needed an edge rusher, I would love to be able to be able to trade out, pick up some extra picks, and draft Brian Burns. Josh Allen and Nick Bosa have higher grades, but Burns is close behind and provides more surplus value than either Allen or Bosa.

• I've seen Zach Allen listed as an edge rushed most places, but I would want to move him inside. He's smaller, but had elite production and his athletic profile plays better inside. He'd be a target for me in the early 2nd.

• I fully expect the model to be wrong about Jerry Tillery. PFF is extremely high on him, and I tend to take some stock in their predictive ability. This model was lower on Chris Jones too, so I could see Tillery being somewhat similar to that situation.