Thursday, October 26, 2017

UFC Fight Night Brunson vs Machida Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*


Derek Brunson (68.88%) vs Lyoto Machida (31.12%)



 68.88%
Overall
31.12% 
46.69%
KO
22.95% 
 6.16%
Sub
2.12% 
 16.03%
Decision
6.04% 


Plays:
2.33% on Brunson at -155

Demian Maia (30.99%) vs Colby Covington (69.01%)

 30.99%
Overall
69.01% 
 11.20%
KO
12.87% 
 5.46%
Sub
2.97% 
 14.33%
Decision
53.17% 

Plays:
3.89% on Covington at -125

Pedro Munhoz (39.66%) vs Rob Font (60.34%)

 39.66%
Overall
60.34% 
 4.40%
KO
7.21% 
 6.90%
Sub
7.84% 
 28.36%
Decision
45.30% 

Plays:
6.16% on Fight GTD at -125

Francisco Trinaldo (56.98%) vs Jim Miller (43.02%)

 56.98%
Overall
43.02% 
 16.90%
KO
18.16% 
 4.65%
Sub
5.72% 
 35.43%
Decision
19.14% 

Plays:
1.15% on Miller at +180

Thiago Santos (39.12%) vs Jack Hermansson (60.88%)

 39.12%
Overall
60.88% 
 10.37%
KO
15.12% 
 3.12%
Sub
3.43% 
 25.63%
Decision
42.34% 

Plays:
10.78% on Fight GTD at +240

John Lineker (80.46%) vs Marlon Vera (19.54%)

 80.46%
Overall
19.54% 
 21.90%
KO
5.53% 
 22.04%
Sub
8.80% 
 36.53%
Decision
5.21% 

Plays:
1.81% on Lineker by Sub at +1500

Antonio Carlos Junior (65.33%) vs Jack Marshman (34.67%)

 65.33%
Overall
34.67% 
 3.72%
KO
3.77% 
 10.32%
Sub
4.70% 
 51.29%
Decision
26.20%

Plays:
2.01% on Marshman at +400

Thursday, October 19, 2017

UFC Fight Night Cerrone vs Till Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Donald Cerrone (50.95%) vs Darren Till (49.05%)

50.95%
Overall
49.05% 
 16.28%
KO
22.00% 
 17.68%
Sub
4.07% 
 16.99%
Decision
22.98% 

Plays:
3.52% on Till at +135

Jan Blachowicz (37.67%) vs Devin Clark (62.33%)

 37.67%
Overall
62.33% 
 17.35%
KO
31.77% 
 9.05%
Sub
11.36% 
 11.27%
Decision
19.20% 

Plays:
10.73% on Clark ITD at +375

Artem Lobov (37.55%) vs Andre Fili (62.45%)

 37.55%
Overall
62.45% 
 8.54%
KO
14.96% 
 8.09%
Sub
7.21% 
 20.93%
Decision
40.28% 

Plays:
0.84% on Fili ITD at +405

Felipe Arantes (29.58%) vs Josh Emmett (70.42%)

29.58%
Overall
70.42% 
 3.87%
KO
4.58% 
 3.04%
Sub
4.15% 
 22.67%
Decision
61.69%

Plays:
34.37% on Fight GTD at -185

Thursday, October 5, 2017

UFC 216 Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Tony Ferguson (56.40%) vs Kevin Lee (43.60%)



 56.40%
Overall
43.60% 
 26.34%
KO
15.45% 
 14.04%
Sub
9.76% 
 16.03%
Decision
18.38% 

Plays:
4.37% on Lee at +220

Demetrious Johnson (91.52%) vs Ray Borg (8.48%)

 91.52%
Overall
8.48% 
 16.17%
KO
2.01% 
 12.05%
Sub
2.62% 
 63.31%
Decision
3.85% 

Plays:
14.29% on Johnson by Dec at +170

Fabricio Werdum (59.26%) vs Derrick Lewis (40.74%)

 59.26%
Overall
40.74% 
 15.37%
KO
11.09% 
 8.54%
Sub
3.04% 
 35.35%
Decision
26.61% 

Plays:
3.36% on Lewis at +225
10.18% on Fight GTD at +135

Beneil Dariush (69.39%) vs Evan Dunham (30.61%)

 69.39%
Overall
30.61% 
 33.00%
KO
12.33% 
 7.48%
Sub
4.89% 
 28.91%
Decision
13.39% 

Plays:
4.41% on Dariush by KO/TKO at +450

Lando Vannata (72.88%) vs Bobby Green (27.12%)

 72.88%
Overall
27.12% 
 23.04%
KO
9.23% 
 12.55%
Sub
3.87% 
 37.29%
Decision
14.02% 

Plays:
None

Thales Leites (34.37%) vs Brad Tavares (65.63%)
.2
 34.37%
Overall
65.63% 
 8.67%
KO
20.51% 
 6.87%
Sub
5.95% 
 18.83%
Decision
39.17% 

Plays:
2.24% on Tavares ITD at +449