Friday, April 13, 2018

UFC Fight Night Poirier vs Gaethje Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Carlos Condit (36.95%) vs Alex Oliveira (63.05%)

 36.95%
Overall
63.05% 
 14.80%
KO
7.99% 
 3.93%
Sub
2.37% 
 18.22%
Decision
52.70% 


Plays:
6.50% on Fight GTD at -155

Michelle Waterson (34.95%) vs Cortney Casey (65.05%)

 34.95%
Overall
65.05% 
 5.11%
KO
3.66% 
 5.51%
Sub
5.41% 
 24.33%
Decision
55.98% 


Plays:
5.07% on Casey at -125

Tim Boetsch (31.59%) vs Antonio Carlos Junior (68.41%)

 31.59%
Overall
68.41% 
 14.14%
KO
15.15% 
 0.96%
Sub
21.01% 
 16.48%
Decision
32.25% 


Plays:
3.74% on Fight GTD at +160

Wilson Reis (56.35%) vs John Moraga (43.65%)

 56.35%
Overall
43.65% 
 2.96%
KO
8.09% 
 4.95%
Sub
1.19% 
 48.44%
Decision
34.36% 


Plays:
13.24% on Fight GTD at -240

Krysztof Jotko (40.67%) vs Brad Tavares (59.33%)

 40.67%
Overall
59.33% 
 11.92%
KO
11.85% 
 1.02%
Sub
9.95% 
 27.73%
Decision
37.54% 


Plays:
2.19% on Tavares at -120

Dhiego Lima (57.57%) vs Yushin Okami (42.43%)

 57.57%
Overall
42.43% 
 19.05%
KO
7.07% 
 5.05%
Sub
3.69% 
 33.47%
Decision
31.66% 


Plays:
3.33% on Lima at +100

Matthew Lopez (51.93%) vs Alejandro Perez (48.07%)

 51.93%
Overall
48.07% 
 7.03%
KO
8.84% 
 9.11%
Sub
4.34% 
 35.79%
Decision
34.90% 


Plays:
2.92% on Fight GTD at -195

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