An NFL roster lives and dies by the quarterback. No other position affects the game the way a quarterback does and no other position correlates to winning as much as the quarterback. The importance on passing efficiency demands that NFL teams do their best to acquire the best talent possible at quarterback. For that reason, our roster breakdown will begin there.
Recently, the Browns as a team have failed as an organization to bring in good quarterback talent. It’s a far cry from the days of Otto Graham. Since 1999, the Browns have trotted out 24 different starting quarterbacks. There was hope with Johnny Manziel but between poor performance on the field and drama off the field, it seems like Johnny Football’s days in Cleveland are numbered.
To begin my analysis of Manziel, I think it’s important to look at his college resume. He’s been in the NFL for 2 years now but he’s only had around 200 passes making him still somewhat of an unknown quantity. Coming out of college, Manziel failed my quarterback benchmark metric test, having a INT index of -0.323. If you haven’t read about my quarterback benchmark test, you can read about it here. Basically, if a quarterback prospect fails any of the benchmarks, their chances of success in the league drastically drop.
Looking into the early returns of Manziel’s NFL career, they are not promising. Let’s take a look at a blind chart of three first round quarterbacks in their first 2 years in league:
Name
|
Cmp%+
|
Y/A+
|
TD%+
|
INT%+
|
QB 1
|
79
|
87
|
83
|
104
|
QB 2
|
76
|
90
|
93
|
103
|
QB 3
|
82
|
89
|
78
|
89
|
These numbers are era-adjusted indexes for each passing stat in each column, making it easier to compare players over the course of time. A number of 100 equates to league average production. You can find all of these numbers for every player over at pro-football-reference.com, an excellent stat resource.
So, all these guys look pretty close, right? Quarterback number 1 is Johnny Manziel, quarterback number 2 is Jamarcus Russell, and quarterback number 3 is David Carr. Not great company. With the exception of interception percentage, Johnny was below league average in every measure of quarterback play, including the ones that aren’t shown on this chart. By all accounts, Manziel’s play on the field statistically has been shaky at best, disastrous at worst.
When comparing his tape in the NFL to what he put out in college, you also see him repeating the same exact mistakes that he was making then. His footwork is still erratic, he still holds the ball like a loaf of bread when scrambling, and has a tendency to lock onto receivers. He just hasn’t progressed past where he was two years ago. Whether the blame should be placed on Manziel himself or the chaotic situation around him is irrelevant. The fact remains that time is running out. There have been some bright spots, but they have been few and far between.
All of these warning signs are not even considering the off the field issues. I’m not going to claim to have any insider information on this, but it’s not good. It comes down to reliability. There is no capacity to be able to trust Johnny with fully taking the job seriously. This seems to be supported with his lack of technical progression on the field. For these reasons, we have to go into this offseason assuming that we need a new quarterback.
Moving onto the other quarterbacks on the roster, Josh McCown could be a candidate to start next year, if we’re unable to find someone to replace Manziel. Ignoring his pretty awful year in Tampa Bay, his stints in Chicago and Cleveland have been nothing short of remarkable. He’s getting up there in age, turning 37 in July, but may yet have one more year in him. I’d prefer to keep him as a backup, but could play for us if emergency strikes.
Austin Davis and Connor Shaw are interesting options for the 3rd QB spot. Davis has
underrated arm strength, hitting a 58 mph ball at the combine in 2012. Davis has had flashes of potential in St. Louis, but has looked dreadful this year. Connor Shaw was pushed into playing as a rookie, and did as well as he could have hoped. He’s actually a pretty good athlete, running a 4.66 40 time with a 7.07 three cone at 206 pounds. I expect these guys to come into camp and compete for the 3rd, with the loser being cut.
CONCLUSION:
This has to be the biggest position of concern for the Browns. They desperately need a franchise quarterback that they’ve lacked for so many years. Luckily for them, I see plenty of potential options to go with. In free agency, there are intriguing reclamation projects such as Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III expected to be available. In the draft, there are a whopping 7 prospects that pass my quarterback benchmark test. At this point, I fully expect to be taking a QB at the 2nd overall pick. When you have a pick that high with very good QB prospects available, you have to take a chance on one of them. The question, however, is which one? I’ll investigate that further in another blog post, coming soon.
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