*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Khabib Nurmagomedov (51.18%) vs Conor McGregor (48.82%)
Plays:
2.26% on McGregor at +165
Tony Ferguson (86.98%) vs Anthony Pettis (13.02%)
Plays:
None
Ovince Saint Preux (17.30%) vs Dominick Reyes (82.70%)
Plays:
7.86% on Reyes at -230
Derrick Lewis (25.86%) vs Alexander Volkov (74.14%)
Plays:
5.09% on Volkov at -160
Michelle Waterson (54.96%) vs Felice Herrig (45.04%)
Plays:
1.43% on Waterson at +105
Sergio Pettis (78.00%) vs Jussier Formiga (22.00%)
Plays:
8.55% on Pettis at -150
Scott Holtzman (51.64%) vs Alan Patrick (48.36%)
Plays:
4.81% on Holtzman at +240
Gray Maynard (25.06%) vs Nik Lentz (74.94%)
Plays:
None
Ryan LaFlare (57.76%) vs Tony Martin (42.24%)
Plays:
None
Scouting the NFL draft using statistical analysis. Follow me on twitter, @BrendanMcAdoo
Friday, October 5, 2018
UFC Fight Night Santos vs Anders Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Thiago Santos (71.62%) vs Eryk Anders (28.38%)
Plays:
6.53% on Santos at -165
Sam Alvey (91.32%) vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (8.68%)
Plays:
32.06% on Alvey at -340
Charles Oliveira (77.86%) vs Christos Giagos (22.14%)
Plays:
None
Fransisco Trinaldo (53.14%) vs Evan Dunham (46.86%)
Plays:
3.56% on Dunham at +168
Sergio Moraes (61.54%) vs Ben Saunders (38.46%)
Plays:
3.05% on Saunders at +245
Thales Leites (50.62%) vs Hector Lombard (49.38%)
Plays:
1.29% on Lombard at +117
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Thiago Santos (71.62%) vs Eryk Anders (28.38%)
Plays:
6.53% on Santos at -165
Sam Alvey (91.32%) vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (8.68%)
Plays:
32.06% on Alvey at -340
Charles Oliveira (77.86%) vs Christos Giagos (22.14%)
Plays:
None
Fransisco Trinaldo (53.14%) vs Evan Dunham (46.86%)
Plays:
3.56% on Dunham at +168
Sergio Moraes (61.54%) vs Ben Saunders (38.46%)
Plays:
3.05% on Saunders at +245
Thales Leites (50.62%) vs Hector Lombard (49.38%)
Plays:
1.29% on Lombard at +117
Friday, September 14, 2018
UFC Fight Night Hunt vs Oleinik Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Mark Hunt (68.46%) vs Aleksei Oleinik (31.54%)
Plays:
9.37% on Hunt at -125
Jan Blachowicz (21.42%) vs Nikita Krylov (78.58%)
Plays:
19.87% on Krylov at -150
Andrei Arlovski (47.78%) vs Shamil Abdurakhimov (52.22%)
Plays:
1.46% on Arlovski at +125
Rustam Khabilov (61.62%) vs Kajan Johnson (38.38%)
Plays:
8.96% on Johnson at +600
Mairbek Taisumov (72.04%) vs Desmond Green (27.96%)
Plays:
2.78% on Green at +420
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Mark Hunt (68.46%) vs Aleksei Oleinik (31.54%)
Plays:
9.37% on Hunt at -125
Jan Blachowicz (21.42%) vs Nikita Krylov (78.58%)
Plays:
19.87% on Krylov at -150
Andrei Arlovski (47.78%) vs Shamil Abdurakhimov (52.22%)
Plays:
1.46% on Arlovski at +125
Rustam Khabilov (61.62%) vs Kajan Johnson (38.38%)
Plays:
8.96% on Johnson at +600
Mairbek Taisumov (72.04%) vs Desmond Green (27.96%)
Plays:
2.78% on Green at +420
Friday, September 7, 2018
UFC 228 Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Tyron Woodley (50.38%) vs Darren Till (49.62%)
Plays:
4.01% on Woodley at +130
Zabit Magomedsharipov (68.28%) vs Brandon Davis (31.72%)
Plays:
8.94% on Davis at +850
Jessica Andrade (82.38%) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (17.62%)
Plays:
None
Abdul Razak Alhassan (64.90%) vs Niko Price (35.10%)
Plays:
8.50% on Alhassan at -120
Aljamain Sterling (47.74%) vs Cody Stamann (52.26%)
Plays:
6.39% on Stamann at +140
Jimmie Rivera (57.56%) vs John Dodson (42.44%)
Plays:
None
Jim Miller (34.60%) vs Alex White (65.40%)
Plays:
4.49% on White at -150
Irene Aldana (39.32%) vs Lucie Pudilova (60.68%)
Plays:
7.82% on Pudilova at +100
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Tyron Woodley (50.38%) vs Darren Till (49.62%)
Plays:
4.01% on Woodley at +130
Zabit Magomedsharipov (68.28%) vs Brandon Davis (31.72%)
Plays:
8.94% on Davis at +850
Jessica Andrade (82.38%) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (17.62%)
Plays:
None
Abdul Razak Alhassan (64.90%) vs Niko Price (35.10%)
Plays:
8.50% on Alhassan at -120
Aljamain Sterling (47.74%) vs Cody Stamann (52.26%)
Plays:
6.39% on Stamann at +140
Jimmie Rivera (57.56%) vs John Dodson (42.44%)
Plays:
None
Jim Miller (34.60%) vs Alex White (65.40%)
Plays:
4.49% on White at -150
Irene Aldana (39.32%) vs Lucie Pudilova (60.68%)
Plays:
7.82% on Pudilova at +100
Friday, August 24, 2018
UFC Fight Night Gaethje vs Vick Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Justin Gaethje (56.12%) vs James Vick (43.88%)
Plays:
1.12% on Gaethje at +125
Michael Johnson (15.80%) vs Andre Fili (84.20%)
Plays:
8.16% on Fili at -115
Cortney Casey (35.24%) vs Angela Hill (64.76%)
Plays:
1.10% on Hill at -125
Jake Ellenberger (19.60%) vs Bryan Barberena (80.40%)
Plays:
None
John Moraga (19.34%) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (80.66%)
Plays:
4.48% on Figueiredo at -150
4.48% on Figueiredo at -150
James Krause (15.66%) vs Warlley Alves (84.34%)
Plays:
None
None
Mickey Gall (78.52%) vs George Sullivan (21.48%)
Plays:
2.04% on Gall at -320
Drew Dober (65.22%) vs Jon Tuck (34.78%)
Plays:
None
Rani Yayha (31.74%) vs Luke Sanders (68.26%)
Plays:
2.73% on Sanders at +110
Friday, August 3, 2018
UFC 227 Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
TJ Dillashaw (42.90%) vs Cody Garbrandt (57.10%)
Plays:
9.24% on Garbrandt at +110
Demetrious Johnson (87.66%) vs Henry Cejudo (12.34%)
Plays:
22.13% on Johnson at -430
Cub Swanson (19.94%) vs Renato Moicano (80.06%)
Plays:
11.29% on Moicano at -295
Pedro Munhoz (64.96%) vs Brett Johns (35.04%)
Plays:
0.36% on Johns at +190
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
TJ Dillashaw (42.90%) vs Cody Garbrandt (57.10%)
Plays:
9.24% on Garbrandt at +110
Demetrious Johnson (87.66%) vs Henry Cejudo (12.34%)
Plays:
22.13% on Johnson at -430
Cub Swanson (19.94%) vs Renato Moicano (80.06%)
Plays:
11.29% on Moicano at -295
Pedro Munhoz (64.96%) vs Brett Johns (35.04%)
Plays:
0.36% on Johns at +190
Friday, July 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night Alvarez vs Poirier Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Eddie Alvarez (16.46%) vs Dustin Poirier (83.54%)
Plays:
6.82% on Poirier at -160
Jose Aldo (50.76%) vs Jeremy Stephens (49.24%)
Plays:
None
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (83.00%) vs Tecia Torres (17.00%)
Plays:
2.80% on Jedrzejczyk at -280
Jordan Mein (44.86%) vs Alex Morono (55.14%)
Plays:
None
Kajan Johnson (35.10%) vs Islam Makhachev (64.90%)
Plays:
1.46% on Johnson at +505
John Makdessi (89.38%) vs Ross Pearson (10.62%)
Plays:
11.19% on Makdessi at -195
Alexis Davis (30.94%) vs Katlyn Chookagian (69.06%)
Plays:
1.63% on Chookagian at -145
Dustin Ortiz (40.22%) vs Matheus Nicolau (59.78%)
Plays:
None
Randa Markos (38.38%) vs Nina Ansaroff (61.62%)
Plays:
None
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Eddie Alvarez (16.46%) vs Dustin Poirier (83.54%)
Plays:
6.82% on Poirier at -160
Jose Aldo (50.76%) vs Jeremy Stephens (49.24%)
Plays:
None
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (83.00%) vs Tecia Torres (17.00%)
Plays:
2.80% on Jedrzejczyk at -280
Jordan Mein (44.86%) vs Alex Morono (55.14%)
Plays:
None
Kajan Johnson (35.10%) vs Islam Makhachev (64.90%)
Plays:
1.46% on Johnson at +505
John Makdessi (89.38%) vs Ross Pearson (10.62%)
Plays:
11.19% on Makdessi at -195
Alexis Davis (30.94%) vs Katlyn Chookagian (69.06%)
Plays:
1.63% on Chookagian at -145
Dustin Ortiz (40.22%) vs Matheus Nicolau (59.78%)
Plays:
None
Randa Markos (38.38%) vs Nina Ansaroff (61.62%)
Plays:
None
Saturday, July 21, 2018
UFC Fight Night Rua vs Smith Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Shogua Rua (19.42%) vs Anthony Smith (80.58%)
Plays:
29.86% on Smith at -190
Glover Teixeira (50.06%) vs Corey Anderson (49.94%)
Plays:
6.36% on Anderson at +140
6.36% on Anderson at +140
Marcin Tybura (76.56%) vs Stefan Struve (23.44%)
Plays:
9.11% on Tybura at -245
9.11% on Tybura at -245
Nick Hein (58.30%) vs Damir Hadzovic (41.70%)
Plays:
0.58% on Hadzovic at +145
Friday, July 13, 2018
UFC Fight Night Dos Santos vs Ivanov Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Sage Northcutt (39.68%) vs Zak Ottow (60.32%)
Plays:
2.55% on Ottow at +130
Dennis Bermudez (70.38%) vs Rick Glenn (29.62%)
Plays:
None
Niko Price (48.72%) vs Randy Brown (51.28%)
Plays:
None
Chad Mendes (23.08%) vs Myles Jury (76.92%)
Plays:
8.47% on Jury at +125
Cat Zingano (69.14%) vs Marion Reneau (30.86%)
Plays:
3.97% on Zingano at +105
Alejandro Perez (70.74%) vs Eddie Wineland (29.26%)
Plays:
1.74% on Perez at -165
Alex Volkanovski (88.38%) vs Darren Elkins (11.62%)
Plays:
7.61% on Volkanovski at -280
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Sage Northcutt (39.68%) vs Zak Ottow (60.32%)
Plays:
2.55% on Ottow at +130
Dennis Bermudez (70.38%) vs Rick Glenn (29.62%)
Plays:
None
Niko Price (48.72%) vs Randy Brown (51.28%)
Plays:
None
Chad Mendes (23.08%) vs Myles Jury (76.92%)
Plays:
8.47% on Jury at +125
Cat Zingano (69.14%) vs Marion Reneau (30.86%)
Plays:
3.97% on Zingano at +105
Alejandro Perez (70.74%) vs Eddie Wineland (29.26%)
Plays:
1.74% on Perez at -165
Alex Volkanovski (88.38%) vs Darren Elkins (11.62%)
Plays:
7.61% on Volkanovski at -280
Friday, July 6, 2018
UFC 226 Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Stipe Miocic (70.44%) vs Daniel Cormier (27.78%)
Plays:
0.77% on Miocic at -210
Francis Ngannou (87.82%) vs Derrick Lewis (12.18%)
Plays:
7.46% on Ngannou at -335
Michael Chiesa (38.62%) vs Anthony Pettis (61.38%)
Plays:
4.10% on Pettis at +135
Uriah Hall (35.50%) vs Paulo Costa (64.50%)
Plays:
1.67% on Hall at +340
Mike Perry (64.94%) vs Paul Felder (35.06%)
Plays:
5.37% on Perry at +135
Raphael Assuncao (50.06%) vs Rob Font (49.94%)
Plays:
1.80% on Font at +155
Dan Hooker (59.36) vs Gilbert Burns (40.64%)
Plays:
1.22% on Hooker at -115
Lando Vannata (43.26%) vs Drakkar Klose (56.74%)
Plays:
3.55% on Klose at +160
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Stipe Miocic (70.44%) vs Daniel Cormier (27.78%)
Plays:
0.77% on Miocic at -210
Francis Ngannou (87.82%) vs Derrick Lewis (12.18%)
Plays:
7.46% on Ngannou at -335
Michael Chiesa (38.62%) vs Anthony Pettis (61.38%)
Plays:
4.10% on Pettis at +135
Uriah Hall (35.50%) vs Paulo Costa (64.50%)
Plays:
1.67% on Hall at +340
Mike Perry (64.94%) vs Paul Felder (35.06%)
Plays:
5.37% on Perry at +135
Raphael Assuncao (50.06%) vs Rob Font (49.94%)
Plays:
1.80% on Font at +155
Dan Hooker (59.36) vs Gilbert Burns (40.64%)
Plays:
1.22% on Hooker at -115
Lando Vannata (43.26%) vs Drakkar Klose (56.74%)
Plays:
3.55% on Klose at +160
Friday, June 22, 2018
UFC Fight Night Cerrone vs Edwards Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Donald Cerrone (37.74%) vs Leon Edwards (62.26%)
Plays:
4.23% on Cerrone at +195
Ovince Saint Preux (33.40%) vs Tyson Pedro (66.60%)
Plays:
15.20% on Pedro at -145
Shinsho Anzai (25.30%) vs Jake Matthews (74.70%)
Plays:
6.53% on Anzai at +450
Jenel Lausa (33.10%) vs Ulka Sasaki (66.90%)
Plays:
1.89% on Lausa at +220
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Donald Cerrone (37.74%) vs Leon Edwards (62.26%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO/TKO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
4.23% on Cerrone at +195
Ovince Saint Preux (33.40%) vs Tyson Pedro (66.60%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO/TKO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
15.20% on Pedro at -145
Shinsho Anzai (25.30%) vs Jake Matthews (74.70%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO/TKO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
6.53% on Anzai at +450
Jenel Lausa (33.10%) vs Ulka Sasaki (66.90%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO/TKO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
1.89% on Lausa at +220
Friday, June 8, 2018
UFC 225 Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Robert Whittaker (84.78%) vs Yoel Romero (15.22%)
Plays:
11.30% on Whittaker at -250
Rafael Dos Anjos (37.98%) vs Colby Covington (62.02%)
Plays:
1.55% on Covington at -135
Alistair Overeem (41.80%) vs Curtis Blaydes (58.20%)
Plays:
0.96% on Overeem at +167
Claudia Gadelha (86.20%) vs Carla Esparza (13.80%)
Plays:
5.60% on Gadelha at -405
Ricardo Lamas (24.70%) vs Mirsad Bektic (75.30%)
Plays:
None
Rashad Evans (26.62%) vs Anthony Smith (73.38%)
Plays:
None
Joseph Benavidez (77.66%) vs Sergio Pettis (22.34%)
Plays:
6.34% on Benavidez at -200
Clay Guida (27.10%) vs Charles Oliveira (72.90%)
Plays:
7.78% on Oliveira at -130
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Robert Whittaker (84.78%) vs Yoel Romero (15.22%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
11.30% on Whittaker at -250
Rafael Dos Anjos (37.98%) vs Colby Covington (62.02%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
1.55% on Covington at -135
Alistair Overeem (41.80%) vs Curtis Blaydes (58.20%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
0.96% on Overeem at +167
Claudia Gadelha (86.20%) vs Carla Esparza (13.80%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
5.60% on Gadelha at -405
Ricardo Lamas (24.70%) vs Mirsad Bektic (75.30%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
None
Rashad Evans (26.62%) vs Anthony Smith (73.38%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
None
Joseph Benavidez (77.66%) vs Sergio Pettis (22.34%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
6.34% on Benavidez at -200
Clay Guida (27.10%) vs Charles Oliveira (72.90%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
7.78% on Oliveira at -130
Thursday, May 31, 2018
UFC Fight Night Rivera vs Moraes Fight Projections
*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Jimmie Rivera (53.64%) vs Marlon Moraes (46.36%)
Plays:
1.82% on Rivera on +100
Jake Ellenberger (45.98%) vs Ben Saunders (54.02%)
Plays:
7.46% on Saunders +155
Gian Villante (77.18%) vs Sam Alvey (22.82%)
Plays:
34.20% on Villante at +130
Nik Lentz (24.02%) vs David Teymur (75.98%)
Plays:
1.56% on Teymur at -290
Desmond Green (77.90%) vs Gleison Tibau (22.10%)
Plays:
3.37% on Green at -295
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*
Jimmie Rivera (53.64%) vs Marlon Moraes (46.36%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
1.82% on Rivera on +100
Jake Ellenberger (45.98%) vs Ben Saunders (54.02%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
7.46% on Saunders +155
Gian Villante (77.18%) vs Sam Alvey (22.82%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
34.20% on Villante at +130
Nik Lentz (24.02%) vs David Teymur (75.98%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
1.56% on Teymur at -290
Desmond Green (77.90%) vs Gleison Tibau (22.10%)
|
Overall
|
|
|
KO
|
|
|
Sub
|
|
|
Decision
|
|
Plays:
3.37% on Green at -295
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