*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
Rafael Dos Anjos (45.32%) vs Tony Ferguson (54.68%)
|
45.32%
|
Overall
|
54.68%
|
|
7.67%
|
KO/TKO
|
25.48%
|
|
7.53%
|
Sub
|
14.81%
|
|
30.13%
|
Decision
|
14.39%
|
This is one of the weird cases where the model actually favors one fighter (Ferguson), but the most likely result overall is the other guy (Dos Anjos by Decision). This more so shows the variety of ways that Ferguson could potentially win this fight, while Dos Anjos is more likely to win in one way. The model sees Ferguson's main advantages in this fight being Ferguson's striking output, reach, and submission output. Expect Ferguson to push the pace against RDA and generally win the striking exchanges. However, if Ferguson is put on his back and can't work a submission, RDA has a good chance of winning the positional battles and taking the fight on points. Ferguson is sitting as a +120 underdog, so taking him straight would be a solid option. Additionally, the model sees value on Ferguson by KO/TKO, currently sitting at +431.
Plays:
Ferguson +120
Ferguson by KO/TKO +431
Ricardo Lamas (32.50%) vs Charles Oliveira (67.50%)
|
32.50%
|
Overall
|
67.50%
|
|
3.79%
|
KO/TKO
|
17.90%
|
|
7.76%
|
Sub
|
22.19%
|
|
20.95%
|
Decision
|
27.40%
|
Coming off of a close fight with former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis, the model expects Charles Oliveira to rebound with a win over Ricardo Lamas. While Lamas is sure to be the crowd favorite in Mexico, there are a few things working against him in this fight. Firstly, he turned 34 this year and is at a 7 year age disadvantage against Oliveira. And secondly, his clearest path to victory, wrestling, has a major road block in Oliveira's jiu jitsu. Even if he is able to take Oliveira down, Oliveira is a master off of his back and could end the fight at any moment. Lamas' best gameplan may be to fight cautiously and win a decision. However, I think that at some point in the fight Oliveira takes the fight to the ground, and either submits Lamas or gets dominant enough positions to get the decision. The odds are currently dead even, so the model sees some value in a Oliveira bet at -110.
Plays:
Oliveira -110
Beneil Dariush (64.28%) vs Rashid Magomedov (35.72%)
|
64.28%
|
Overall
|
32.72%
|
|
13.84%
|
KO/TKO
|
3.39%
|
|
8.09%
|
Sub
|
0.69%
|
|
42.35%
|
Decision
|
31.65%
|
Following a devastating knock out of James Vick at UFC 199, the model favors Beneil Dariush to continue his winning streak on Saturday. Dariush is likely to win most if not all of the grappling exchanges, and has significantly improved his hands after joining Kings MMA. While Rashid is relatively new to the UFC, he is surprisingly 5 years older than Dariush at 32 years old. Expect Dariush to hold his own on the feet while scoring takedowns and threatening with submissions on route to a decision victory. The price has tightened quite a bit on this fight, but you can still get Dariush at an underdog price of +115. If you want to take a long shot gamble on Dariush's improved striking and Rashid's questionable aging chin, Dariush is also a large +765 by KO/TKO
Plays:
Dariush +115
Dariush by KO/TKO +765
Erik Perez (58.94%) vs Felipe Arantes (41.06%)
|
58.94%
|
Overall
|
41.06%
|
|
3.92%
|
KO/TKO
|
1.67%
|
|
17.13%
|
Sub
|
9.96%
|
|
37.89%
|
Decision
|
29.44%
|
The model generally agrees with the betting markets for this bout. This fight should bring us a fairly closely contested fight, with some back and forth grappling exchanges. The more the fight stays on the feet, the more it favors Perez. If the fight takes place on the ground, expect the fight to be more even, possibly even favoring Arantes. I would suggest to avoid betting on this fight, but if you absolutely need action on it, over 2 1/2 rounds should have a decent chance to cash at -150.
Plays:
None
