Saturday, December 2, 2017

UFC 218 Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Max Holloway (76.22%) vs Jose Aldo (23.78%)

 76.22%
Overall
23.78% 
 48.50%
KO
10.91% 
 4.95%
Sub
0.22% 
 22.78%
Decision
12.65% 

Plays:
1.11% on Holloway by decision at +387

Alistair Overeem (30.38%) vs Francis Ngannou (69.62%)

 30.38%
Overall
69.62% 
 19.73%
KO
63.59% 
 0.50%
Sub
0.14% 
 10.15%
Decision
5.90% 

Plays:
4.61% on Ngannou by KO/TKO at -145
Henry Cejudo (61.04%) vs Sergio Pettis (38.96%)

 61.04%
Overall
38.96% 
 9.08%
KO
15.25% 
 1.62%
Sub
0.90% 
 50.34%
Decision
22.81% 

Plays:
7.22% on Pettis at +265
Tecia Torres (72.48%) vs Michelle Waterson (27.52%)

 72.48%
Overall
27.52% 
 5.62%
KO
9.68% 
 3.41%
Sub
4.25% 
 63.45%
Decision
13.59% 

Plays:
6.26% on Torres by decision at -135

Charles Oliveira (59.99%) vs Paul Felder (40.01%)

 59.99%
Overall
40.01% 
 20.15%
KO
20.91% 
 28.52%
Sub
1.66% 
 11.32%
Decision
17.44% 

Plays:
7.02% on Oliveira ITD at +155
Alex Oliveira (59.91%) vs Yancy Medeiros (40.09%)

 59.91%
Overall
40.09% 
 13.15%
KO
21.72% 
 28.66%
Sub
8.09% 
 18.10%
Decision
10.27% 

Plays:
6.23% on Medeiros at +230

Felice Herrig (53.03%) vs Cortney Casey (46.97%)

53.03% 
Overall
46.97% 
 5.72%
KO
2.96% 
 8.64%
Sub
11.11% 
 38.67%
Decision
32.89% 

Plays:
7.32% on Fight GTD at -195

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

UFC TUF 26 Finale Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Andrew Sanchez (78.09%) vs Ryan Janes (21.91%)

 78.09%
Overall
21.91% 
 6.62%
KO
11.45% 
 7.06%
Sub
1.16% 
 64.42%
Decision
9.29% 

Plays:
11.93% on Sanchez by Dec at -125

Eric Spicely (31.01%) vs Gerald Meerschaert (68.99%)

 31.01%
Overall
68.99% 
 1.66%
KO
5.12% 
 10.21%
Sub
24.41% 
 19.14%
Decision
39.46% 

Plays:
32.18% on Fight GTD at +225

Friday, November 24, 2017

UFC Fight Night Bisping vs Gastelum Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Michael Bisping (25.81%) vs Kelvin Gastelum (74.19%)

 25.81%
Overall
74.19% 
 9.41%
KO
21.56% 
 0.09%
Sub
9.96% 
 16.31%
Decision
42.67% 

Plays:
21.15% on Gastelum by Dec at +428
Li Jingliang (61.31%) vs Zak Ottow (38.69%)

 61.31%
Overall
38.69% 
 7.96%
KO
5.40% 
 5.18%
Sub
1.23% 
 48.17%
Decision
32.06% 

Plays:
7.25% on Jingliang by Dec at +145

Chase Sherman (55.87%) vs Shamil Abdurakhimov (44.13%)

 55.87%
Overall
44.13% 
 30.93%
KO
19.35% 
 1.16%
Sub
2.34% 
 23.78%
Decision
22.43% 

Plays:
10.84% on Sherman at +115

Thursday, November 16, 2017

UFC Fight Night Werdum vs Tybura Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Fabricio Werdum (67.12%) vs Marcin Tybura (32.88%)

 67.12%
Overall
32.88% 
 13.65%
KO
16.95% 
 14.98%
Sub
0.08% 
 38.49%
Decision
15.85% 

Plays:
11.39% on Fight GTD at +150

Tim Means (57.39%) vs Belal Muhammad (42.61%)

 57.39%
Overall
42.61% 
 17.44%
KO
5.81% 
 11.26%
Sub
1.91% 
 28.69%
Decision
34.89% 

Plays:
4.36% on Muhammad at +180

Jake Matthews (63.04%) vs Bojan Velickovic (36.96%)

 63.04%
Overall
36.96% 
 8.31%
KO
4.64% 
 13.40%
Sub
8.64% 
 41.33%
Decision
23.69% 

Plays:
5.49% on Matthews at -135
Elias Theodorou (73.92%) vs Dan Kelly (26.08%)

 73.92%
Overall
26.08% 
 4.37%
KO
7.82% 
 1.34%
Sub
0.21% 
 68.21%
Decision
18.05% 

Plays:
14.44% on Theodorou by decision at -125
Nik Lentz (20.20%) vs Will Brooks (79.80%)

 20.20%
Overall
79.80% 
 9.21%
KO
8.36% 
 0.72%
Sub
6.51% 
 10.27%
Decision
64.93% 

Plays:
5.94% on Brooks by decision at -145