Thursday, September 7, 2017

UFC 215 Fight Projections


*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*

*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*


Amanda Nunes (48.25%) vs Valentina Shevchenko (51.75%)

 48.25%
Overall
51.75% 
 17.21%
KO
18.98% 
 14.55%
Sub
6.84% 
 16.49%
Decision
25.93% 

Plays:
7.16% on Fight GTD at +185

Neil Magny (40.33%) vs Rafael Dos Anjos (59.67%)

 41.74%
Overall
58.26% 
 9.84%
KO
17.54% 
 4.38%
Sub
7.05% 
 26.11%
Decision
35.08% 

Plays:
3.74% on Magny at +175

Jeremy Stephens (49.18%) vs Gilbert Melendez (50.82%)

 49.18%
Overall
50.82% 
 17.25%
KO
14.69% 
 4.60%
Sub
3.71% 
 27.34%
Decision
32.42% 

Plays:
3.41% on Fight DGTD at +173

Henry Cejudo (73.93%) vs Wilson Reis (26.07%)

 73.93%
Overall
26.07% 
 34.40%
KO
6.47% 
 5.27%
Sub
3.27% 
 34.26%
Decision
16.34% 

Plays:
14.56% on Cejudo by KO at +474

Kajan Johnson (20.55%) vs Adriano Martin (79.45%)


 20.55%
Overall
79.45% 
 8.45%
KO
38.96% 
 1.41%
Sub
5.35% 
 10.69%
Decision
35.14% 

Plays:
6.05% on Fight GTD at +150

Friday, September 1, 2017

UFC Fight Night Struve vs Volkov Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Leon Edwards (55.54%) vs Bryan Barberena (44.46%)

 55.54%
Overall
44.46% 
 9.77%
KO
7.05% 
 8.53%
Sub
9.72% 
 37.25%
Decision
27.68% 

Plays:
14.07% on Barberena at +225

Darren Till (66.35%) vs Bojan Velickovic (33.65%)

 66.35%
Overall
33.65% 
 12.18%
KO
6.29% 
 8.57%
Sub
5.75% 
 45.60%
Decision
21.60% 

Plays:
12.53% on Fight GTD at -150

Thibault Gouti (42.54%) vs Andrew Holbrook (57.46%)

 42.54%
Overall
57.46% 
 5.30%
KO
11.99% 
 9.15%
Sub
20.95% 
 28.09%
Decision
24.52% 

Plays:
8.73% on Gouti by Dec at +485

Saturday, August 5, 2017

UFC Fight Night Pettis vs Moreno Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Sergio Pettis (42.38%) vs Brandon Moreno (57.62%)

 42.38%
Overall
57.62% 
 4.82%
KO
7.32% 
 7.33%
Sub
14.94% 
 30.23%
Decision
35.36% 

Plays:
19.32% on Fight GTD at +120

Sam Alvey (66.67%) vs Rashad Evans (33.33%)

 66.67%
Overall
33.33% 
 40.24%
KO
12.44% 
 5.79%
Sub
2.09% 
 20.64%
Decision
18.80% 

Plays:
13.05% on Alvey at -115

Brad Scott (38.82%) vs Jack Hermansson (61.18%)

 38.82%
Overall
61.18% 
 11.61%
KO
14.87% 
 6.46%
Sub
5.50% 
 20.75%
Decision
40.81% 

Plays:
3.54% on Scott at +210
Dustin Ortiz (64.85%) vs Hector Sandoval (35.15%)

 64.85%
Overall
35.15% 
 12.85%
KO
9.21% 
 7.39%
Sub
5.63% 
 44.62%
Decision
20.31% 

Plays:
1.78% on Ortiz ITD at +527

Henry Briones (43.20%) vs Rani Yayha (56.80%)

 43.20%
Overall
56.80% 
 8.29%
KO
8.62% 
 5.25%
Sub
11.76% 
 29.66%
Decision
36.43% 

Plays:
5.73% on Briones at +200

Friday, July 28, 2017

UFC 214 Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Daniel Cormier (27.53%) vs Jon Jones (72.47%)

27.53% 
Overall
72.47% 
 14.04%
KO
45.79% 
 2.83%
Sub
4.22% 
 10.66%
Dec
22.46% 

Plays:
13.18% on Jones ITD at +289

Tyron Woodley (66.71%) vs Demian Maia (33.29%)

 66.71%
Overall
33.29% 
 43.28%
KO
18.58% 
 3.85%
Sub
3.11% 
 19.59%
Dec
11.59% 

Plays:
None

Robbie Lawler (55.07%) vs Donald Cerrone (44.93%) 

 55.07%
Overall
44.93% 
 22.98%
KO
20.91% 
 3.70%
Sub
8.09% 
 28.39%
Dec
15.93% 

Plays:
1.45% on Cerrone by KO/TKO at +500
Ricardo Lamas (33.60%) vs Jason Knight (66.40%)

 33.60%
Overall
66.40% 
 5.91%
KO
18.22% 
 7.87%
Sub
25.59% 
 19.82%
Dec
22.59% 

Plays:
10.46% on Knight at -115

Aljamain Sterling (48.04%) vs Renan Barao (51.96%)

 48.04%
Overall
51.96% 
 16.47%
KO
15.78% 
 6.46%
Sub
8.89% 
 25.12%
Dec
27.28% 

Plays:
6.79% on Fight DGTD at +190

Renato Moicano (55.38%) vs Brian Ortega (44.62%)

 55.38%
Overall
44.62% 
 8.20%
KO
9.48% 
 5.23%
Sub
12.71% 
 41.95%
Dec
22.43% 

Plays:
2.65% on Ortega at +155

Josh Burkman (22.78%) vs Drew Dober (77.22%)

 22.78%
Overall
77.22% 
 7.22%
KO
40.06% 
 3.80%
Sub
7.56% 
 11.76%
Dec
29.60% 

Plays:
6.46% on Fight DGTD +105