Saturday, August 5, 2017

UFC Fight Night Pettis vs Moreno Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Sergio Pettis (42.38%) vs Brandon Moreno (57.62%)

 42.38%
Overall
57.62% 
 4.82%
KO
7.32% 
 7.33%
Sub
14.94% 
 30.23%
Decision
35.36% 

Plays:
19.32% on Fight GTD at +120

Sam Alvey (66.67%) vs Rashad Evans (33.33%)

 66.67%
Overall
33.33% 
 40.24%
KO
12.44% 
 5.79%
Sub
2.09% 
 20.64%
Decision
18.80% 

Plays:
13.05% on Alvey at -115

Brad Scott (38.82%) vs Jack Hermansson (61.18%)

 38.82%
Overall
61.18% 
 11.61%
KO
14.87% 
 6.46%
Sub
5.50% 
 20.75%
Decision
40.81% 

Plays:
3.54% on Scott at +210
Dustin Ortiz (64.85%) vs Hector Sandoval (35.15%)

 64.85%
Overall
35.15% 
 12.85%
KO
9.21% 
 7.39%
Sub
5.63% 
 44.62%
Decision
20.31% 

Plays:
1.78% on Ortiz ITD at +527

Henry Briones (43.20%) vs Rani Yayha (56.80%)

 43.20%
Overall
56.80% 
 8.29%
KO
8.62% 
 5.25%
Sub
11.76% 
 29.66%
Decision
36.43% 

Plays:
5.73% on Briones at +200

Friday, July 28, 2017

UFC 214 Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Daniel Cormier (27.53%) vs Jon Jones (72.47%)

27.53% 
Overall
72.47% 
 14.04%
KO
45.79% 
 2.83%
Sub
4.22% 
 10.66%
Dec
22.46% 

Plays:
13.18% on Jones ITD at +289

Tyron Woodley (66.71%) vs Demian Maia (33.29%)

 66.71%
Overall
33.29% 
 43.28%
KO
18.58% 
 3.85%
Sub
3.11% 
 19.59%
Dec
11.59% 

Plays:
None

Robbie Lawler (55.07%) vs Donald Cerrone (44.93%) 

 55.07%
Overall
44.93% 
 22.98%
KO
20.91% 
 3.70%
Sub
8.09% 
 28.39%
Dec
15.93% 

Plays:
1.45% on Cerrone by KO/TKO at +500
Ricardo Lamas (33.60%) vs Jason Knight (66.40%)

 33.60%
Overall
66.40% 
 5.91%
KO
18.22% 
 7.87%
Sub
25.59% 
 19.82%
Dec
22.59% 

Plays:
10.46% on Knight at -115

Aljamain Sterling (48.04%) vs Renan Barao (51.96%)

 48.04%
Overall
51.96% 
 16.47%
KO
15.78% 
 6.46%
Sub
8.89% 
 25.12%
Dec
27.28% 

Plays:
6.79% on Fight DGTD at +190

Renato Moicano (55.38%) vs Brian Ortega (44.62%)

 55.38%
Overall
44.62% 
 8.20%
KO
9.48% 
 5.23%
Sub
12.71% 
 41.95%
Dec
22.43% 

Plays:
2.65% on Ortega at +155

Josh Burkman (22.78%) vs Drew Dober (77.22%)

 22.78%
Overall
77.22% 
 7.22%
KO
40.06% 
 3.80%
Sub
7.56% 
 11.76%
Dec
29.60% 

Plays:
6.46% on Fight DGTD +105

Thursday, July 20, 2017

UFC on Fox 25 Weidman vs Gastelum Fight Projections


*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Chris Weidman (33.08%) vs Kelvin Gastelum (66.92%)

 33.08%
Overall
66.92% 
 6.25%
KO
26.09% 
 7.88%
Sub
6.96% 
 18.94%
Decision
33.88% 

Plays:
7.74% on Gastelum at -160

Dennis Bermudez (63.82%) vs Darren Elkins (36.18%)

 63.82%
Overall
36.18% 
 23.05%
KO
14.04% 
 11.36%
Sub
8.43% 
 29.41%
Decision
13.71% 

Plays:
4.61% on under 2 1/2 rounds at +225

Patrick Cummins (32.03%) vs Gian Villante (67.97%)

 32.03%
Overall
67.97% 
 9.59%
KO
45.09% 
 2.99%
Sub
5.91% 
 19.45%
Decision
16.97% 

Plays:
4.41% on Villante by KO at +150

Jimmie Rivera (49.94%) vs Thomas Almeida (50.06%)

 49.94%
Overall
50.06% 
 14.81%
KO
18.75% 
 5.48%
Sub
5.15% 
 29.65%
Decision
26.17% 

Plays:
13.05% on Almeida at +175
Ryan LaFlare (55.50%) vs Alex Oliveira (44.50%) 

 55.50%
Overall
44.50% 
 19.74%
KO
12.01% 
 6.78%
Sub
10.76% 
 28.97%
Decision
21.73% 

Plays:
2.21% on under 2 1/2 rounds at +220

Chris Wade (63.53%) vs Frankie Perez (36.47%)

 63.53%
Overall
36.47% 
 9.54%
KO
7.97% 
 15.93%
Sub
6.58% 
 38.06%
Decision
21.93% 

Plays:
6.22% on Perez at +255