Friday, November 3, 2017

UFC 217 Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Michael Bisping (54.23%) vs Georges St. Pierre (45.77%)

 54.23%
Overall
45.77% 
 25.58%
KO
18.41% 
 2.83%
Sub
2.07% 
 25.82%
Decision
25.29% 

Plays:
2.08% on Bisping at -105

Cody Garbrandt (60.40%) vs TJ Dillashaw (39.60%)

 60.40%
Overall
39.60% 
 27.75%
KO
13.83% 
 4.50%
Sub
3.55% 
 28.15%
Decision
22.22% 

Plays:
1.42% on Dillashaw by KO/TKO at +905
Joanna Jedrzejcyk (78.41%) vs Rose Namajunas (21.59%)

 78.41%
Overall
21.59% 
 15.71%
KO
3.23% 
 8.38%
Sub
3.44% 
 54.31%
Decision
14.92% 

Plays:
2.50% on Namajunas at +550

Stephen Thompson (57.91%) vs Jorge Masvidal (42.09%) 

 57.91%
Overall
42.09% 
 22.68%
KO
17.54% 
 5.22%
Sub
2.61% 
 30.01%
Decision
21.93% 

Plays:
1.98% on Masvidal at +160

James Vick (42.14%) vs Joe Duffy (57.86%)

 42.14%
Overall
57.86% 
 14.78%
KO
18.93% 
 7.91%
Sub
15.46% 
 19.45%
Decision
23.47% 

Plays:
2.27% on Vick by KO/TKO at +1055

Randy Brown (53.71%) vs Mickey Gall (46.29%) 

 53.71%
Overall
46.29%
 29.71%
KO
3.35% 
 15.61%
Sub
42.88% 
 8.40%
Decision
0.06%

Plays:
1.70% on Brown at -105

Aleksei Oleinik (17.91%) vs Curtis Blaydes (82.09%) 

 17.91%
Overall
82.09% 
 1.89%
KO
6.87% 
 9.54%
Sub
3.04% 
 6.47%
Decision
72.18% 

Plays:
30.80% on Over 1 1/2 rounds at -137

Ovince Saint Preux (49.98%) vs Corey Anderson (50.02%)

 49.98%
Overall
50.02% 
 10.89%
KO
7.45% 
 13.62%
Sub
3.31% 
 25.50%
Decision
39.26% 

Plays:
3.52% on Anderson at +125

Thursday, October 26, 2017

UFC Fight Night Brunson vs Machida Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*


Derek Brunson (68.88%) vs Lyoto Machida (31.12%)



 68.88%
Overall
31.12% 
46.69%
KO
22.95% 
 6.16%
Sub
2.12% 
 16.03%
Decision
6.04% 


Plays:
2.33% on Brunson at -155

Demian Maia (30.99%) vs Colby Covington (69.01%)

 30.99%
Overall
69.01% 
 11.20%
KO
12.87% 
 5.46%
Sub
2.97% 
 14.33%
Decision
53.17% 

Plays:
3.89% on Covington at -125

Pedro Munhoz (39.66%) vs Rob Font (60.34%)

 39.66%
Overall
60.34% 
 4.40%
KO
7.21% 
 6.90%
Sub
7.84% 
 28.36%
Decision
45.30% 

Plays:
6.16% on Fight GTD at -125

Francisco Trinaldo (56.98%) vs Jim Miller (43.02%)

 56.98%
Overall
43.02% 
 16.90%
KO
18.16% 
 4.65%
Sub
5.72% 
 35.43%
Decision
19.14% 

Plays:
1.15% on Miller at +180

Thiago Santos (39.12%) vs Jack Hermansson (60.88%)

 39.12%
Overall
60.88% 
 10.37%
KO
15.12% 
 3.12%
Sub
3.43% 
 25.63%
Decision
42.34% 

Plays:
10.78% on Fight GTD at +240

John Lineker (80.46%) vs Marlon Vera (19.54%)

 80.46%
Overall
19.54% 
 21.90%
KO
5.53% 
 22.04%
Sub
8.80% 
 36.53%
Decision
5.21% 

Plays:
1.81% on Lineker by Sub at +1500

Antonio Carlos Junior (65.33%) vs Jack Marshman (34.67%)

 65.33%
Overall
34.67% 
 3.72%
KO
3.77% 
 10.32%
Sub
4.70% 
 51.29%
Decision
26.20%

Plays:
2.01% on Marshman at +400

Thursday, October 19, 2017

UFC Fight Night Cerrone vs Till Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Donald Cerrone (50.95%) vs Darren Till (49.05%)

50.95%
Overall
49.05% 
 16.28%
KO
22.00% 
 17.68%
Sub
4.07% 
 16.99%
Decision
22.98% 

Plays:
3.52% on Till at +135

Jan Blachowicz (37.67%) vs Devin Clark (62.33%)

 37.67%
Overall
62.33% 
 17.35%
KO
31.77% 
 9.05%
Sub
11.36% 
 11.27%
Decision
19.20% 

Plays:
10.73% on Clark ITD at +375

Artem Lobov (37.55%) vs Andre Fili (62.45%)

 37.55%
Overall
62.45% 
 8.54%
KO
14.96% 
 8.09%
Sub
7.21% 
 20.93%
Decision
40.28% 

Plays:
0.84% on Fili ITD at +405

Felipe Arantes (29.58%) vs Josh Emmett (70.42%)

29.58%
Overall
70.42% 
 3.87%
KO
4.58% 
 3.04%
Sub
4.15% 
 22.67%
Decision
61.69%

Plays:
34.37% on Fight GTD at -185