Saturday, July 15, 2017

UFC Fight Night Nelson vs Ponzinibbio Fight Projections


*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Gunnar Nelson (54.42%) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio (45.58%)

 54.42%
Overall
45.58% 
 13.22%
KO
12.82% 
 13.40%
Sub
5.11% 
 27.80%
Decision
27.65% 

Plays:
9.22% on Ponzinibbio at +160
13.39% on Fight GTD at +185 (Projected odds lowered in order to reduce dependence on single bet)

Stevie Ray (64.54%) vs Paul Felder (35.46%)

 64.54%
Overall
35.46% 
 19.75%
KO
6.95% 
 9.25%
Sub
6.80% 
 35.53%
Decision
21.71% 

Plays:
3.83% on Ray by KO/TKO at +550


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