Thursday, July 20, 2017

UFC on Fox 25 Weidman vs Gastelum Fight Projections


*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Chris Weidman (33.08%) vs Kelvin Gastelum (66.92%)

 33.08%
Overall
66.92% 
 6.25%
KO
26.09% 
 7.88%
Sub
6.96% 
 18.94%
Decision
33.88% 

Plays:
7.74% on Gastelum at -160

Dennis Bermudez (63.82%) vs Darren Elkins (36.18%)

 63.82%
Overall
36.18% 
 23.05%
KO
14.04% 
 11.36%
Sub
8.43% 
 29.41%
Decision
13.71% 

Plays:
4.61% on under 2 1/2 rounds at +225

Patrick Cummins (32.03%) vs Gian Villante (67.97%)

 32.03%
Overall
67.97% 
 9.59%
KO
45.09% 
 2.99%
Sub
5.91% 
 19.45%
Decision
16.97% 

Plays:
4.41% on Villante by KO at +150

Jimmie Rivera (49.94%) vs Thomas Almeida (50.06%)

 49.94%
Overall
50.06% 
 14.81%
KO
18.75% 
 5.48%
Sub
5.15% 
 29.65%
Decision
26.17% 

Plays:
13.05% on Almeida at +175
Ryan LaFlare (55.50%) vs Alex Oliveira (44.50%) 

 55.50%
Overall
44.50% 
 19.74%
KO
12.01% 
 6.78%
Sub
10.76% 
 28.97%
Decision
21.73% 

Plays:
2.21% on under 2 1/2 rounds at +220

Chris Wade (63.53%) vs Frankie Perez (36.47%)

 63.53%
Overall
36.47% 
 9.54%
KO
7.97% 
 15.93%
Sub
6.58% 
 38.06%
Decision
21.93% 

Plays:
6.22% on Perez at +255

Saturday, July 15, 2017

UFC Fight Night Nelson vs Ponzinibbio Fight Projections


*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Gunnar Nelson (54.42%) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio (45.58%)

 54.42%
Overall
45.58% 
 13.22%
KO
12.82% 
 13.40%
Sub
5.11% 
 27.80%
Decision
27.65% 

Plays:
9.22% on Ponzinibbio at +160
13.39% on Fight GTD at +185 (Projected odds lowered in order to reduce dependence on single bet)

Stevie Ray (64.54%) vs Paul Felder (35.46%)

 64.54%
Overall
35.46% 
 19.75%
KO
6.95% 
 9.25%
Sub
6.80% 
 35.53%
Decision
21.71% 

Plays:
3.83% on Ray by KO/TKO at +550


Thursday, July 6, 2017

UFC TUF 25 Finale Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Elias Theodorou (48.35%) vs Brad Tavares (51.65%)


 48.35%
Overall
51.65% 
 11.17%
KO/TKO
9.84% 
 6.80%
Sub
6.88% 
 30.38%
Decision
34.93% 


Plays:
None

Ed Herman (38.20%) vs CB Dollaway (61.80%)

 38.20%
Overall
61.80% 
 20.90%
KO/TKO
 41.07%
 9.43%
Sub
 6.83%
 7.87%
Decision
 13.91%

Plays:
22.34% on Fight DGTD at -160

Gray Maynard (13.13%) vs Teruto Ishihara (86.87%)

 13.13%
Overall
86.87% 
 2.09%
KO/TKO
24.69% 
 1.15%
Sub
5.73% 
 9.89%
Decision
56.44%

Plays:
22.22% on Ishihara by Dec at +330

Tecia Torres (80.69%) vs Juliana Lima (19.31%)

 80.69%
Overall
19.31% 
 17.50%
KO/TKO
2.07% 
 3.51%
Sub
1.36% 
 59.68%
Decision
15.89% 

Plays:
2.97% on Torres at -370

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

UFC 213 Fight Projections

*Disclaimer: Betting advice is just for fun, I am not responsible for any bets placed*
*All bet amounts are based on percent of bankroll, per the Kelly criterion*

Amanda Nunes (55.53%) vs Valentina Shevchenko (44.47%)



55.53%
Overall
44.47% 
 19.80%
KO/TKO
16.31% 
 16.75%
Sub
5.88% 
 18.98%
Decision
22.28%

Plays:
1.53% on Fight GTD at +170

Yoel Romero (26.75%) vs Robert Whittaker (73.25%)

 26.75%
Overall
73.25% 
 9.34%
KO/TKO
43.96% 
 2.40%
Sub
3.47% 
 15.01%
Decision
 25.82%

Plays:
10.48% on Whittaker at -130

Daniel Omielanczuk (9.22%) vs Curtis Blaydes (90.78%)

 9.22%
Overall
90.78% 
 1.30%
KO/TKO
2.29% 
 2.89%
Sub
2.61% 
 5.03%
Decision
 85.88%

Plays:
17.19*** on Fight GTD at +155 (Projected odds lowered in order to reduce dependence on single bet)

Fabricio Werdum (46.60%) vs Alistair Overeem (53.40%)

 46.60%
Overall
53.40% 
 17.27%
KO/TKO
22.01% 
 4.87%
Sub
3.93% 
 24.47%
Decision
 27.47%

Plays:
None

Anthony Pettis (65.94%) vs Jim Miller (34.06%)

 65.94%
Overall
34.06% 
 16.67%
KO/TKO
8.58% 
 10.57%
Sub
7.85% 
 38.70%
Decision
17.64% 

Plays:
None

Travis Browne (69.70%) vs Aleksei Oleinik (30.30%)

 69.70%
Overall
30.30% 
 43.01%
KO/TKO
8.58% 
 8.14%
Sub
10.38% 
 18.56%
Decision
5.52% 

Plays:
1.30% on Fight GTD at +450

Douglas Silva (22.73%) vs Rob Font (77.27%)

 22.73%
Overall
77.27% 
 3.28%
KO/TKO
11.30% 
 1.53%
Sub
5.82% 
 17.92%
Decision
 60.15%

Plays:
9.06% on Font by Dec at +159